One Last Flip-Flop

One Last Flip-Flop
Ann Coulter
November 3, 2004

I guess John Kerry went into the primary without a plan to win the election.

The Democrats threw everything they had at this election. They ran a phony Vietnam War hero and a phony Southerner. They had middle-aged women executives at MTV hawking "Rock the Vote" to entice the most uninformed young people to vote for Kerry. They had Bruce Springsteen, Dave Matthews and New York Times darling Eminem. They had documentaries, books, the universities, Hollywood (and the French!) on their side.

They had liberal thugs ransacking Bush-Cheney headquarters, stealing Bush-Cheney signs and slashing the tires of Bush-Cheney get-out-the-vote vans on Election Day. In Colorado, they traded voter registrations for crack cocaine. In Ohio, they registered Mary Poppins and Dick Tracy. In South Carolina, Emily's List called Republican households and gave them incorrect information about the location of polling places.

The media campaigned heavily for Kerry with endless Abu Ghraib coverage, phony National Guard documents and, days before the election, false news reports that hundreds of tons of munitions had been looted in Iraq.

The Democrats' cheating never stopped. The big story of this election is the fraudulent exit polls on Election Day. Strange as it seems to me, it is well acknowledged that people are more likely to come out and vote for a winner. Early exit polls showing Kerry the clear winner could be expected to depress the vote for Bush.

Stunningly inaccurate exit polls released around noon on Election Day convinced news anchors, talking heads and even the campaigns that Kerry would win walking away. But at 9 p.m., when the first actual results began to come in, the election flipped to Bush. It was the first Kerry flip-flop that actually served the national interest.

The exit polls were absurd: They showed Kerry winning Pennsylvania by 20 points and Bush tied with Kerry in Mississippi. Only monkey business can explain the wildly pro-Kerry exit polls – admittedly hard to believe with a party that has behaved so honorably throughout this campaign. Michael Barone speculates that the sites of exit polling were leaked to the Democrats, and Democrats sent large numbers of voters to those polls to take exit polls and throw the results.

But for all their chicanery, vote-stealing, Hollywood starlets, fake polls and faux patriotism, the Democrats were wiped out on Election Day.

Bush won the largest popular vote in history with a 3.5 million margin. Indeed, simply by getting a majority of the country to vote for him – the left's most hated politician since Richard Nixon – Bush did something "rock star" Bill Clinton never did. Bush maintained or increased his vote in every state but Vermont. Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate, and continue to dominate state governorships. Also making history of a sort, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle lost his election, marking the first time in half a century a Senate leader has been defeated.

To Michael Moore, George Soros, Terry McAuliffe, Dan Rather, Al Franken and the whole gang at Air America Radio – you were great, guys! Thanks for the help! We couldn't have done it without you!

Of course, we could have done it a lot earlier on election night but for "Boy Genius" Karl Rove. It's absurd that the election was as close as it was. The nation is at war, Bush is a magnificent wartime leader, and the night before the election we didn't know if a liberal tax-and-spend, Vietnam War-protesting senator from Massachusetts would beat him.

If Rove is "the architect" – as Bush called him in his acceptance speech – then he is the architect of high TV ratings, not a Republican victory. By keeping the race so tight, Rove ensured that a race that should have been a runaway Bush victory would not be over until the wee hours of the morning.

As we now know, the most important issue to voters was not terrorism, but moral values. Marriage amendments won by lopsided majorities in all 11 states where they were on the ballot. Even in Oregon, the state targeted by gay marriage advocates as their best shot of defeating a marriage amendment, the amendment passed by 57 percent – a figure noticeable for being larger than the percentage of votes cast for Bush in Oregon. In the great state of Mississippi, the marriage amendment passed with 88 percent of the vote.

Seventy percent to 80 percent of Americans oppose gay marriage and partial-birth abortion. Far from appealing exclusively to a narrow Republican base, opposition to gay marriage is strongest among the Democratic base: blacks, Hispanics, blue-collar workers and the elderly. There were marriage amendments on the ballot in Michigan and Ohio. Bush won Ohio narrowly and lost Michigan by only 2 points. How different might that have been if Bush hadn't run from the issue.

But Rove concluded Bush should stay mum on gay marriage and partial-birth abortion – contravening the politicians' rule of thumb: Talk about your positions that are wildly popular with voters. "Boy Genius" Rove decided Bush shouldn't even run radio ads on gay marriage, and at the last minute, Bush started claiming he was in favor of civil unions, just like John Kerry.

Amazingly, it was the Democrats – the ones who support gay marriage – who used the gay issue for political advantage, most famously when Kerry gay-baited Mary Cheney during the third debate.

The one toss-up Senate seat lost by the Republicans was Pete Coors in Colorado, where the Democrats did not hesitate to run commercials of a bacchanalian gay festival in Canada sponsored by Coors Brewing Co. The most narrow Republican win in a toss-up Senate race was in Alaska, where the Republican candidate was another "progressive" on the social issues.

When contemplating a former New York mayor as their next presidential candidate, Republicans should remember: This election should have been over sometime in August, not 1 a.m. election night.

Prospects for Bush's Second Term

Prospects for Bush's Second Term
Wednesday, November 03, 2004

WASHINGTON — President Bush heads into his second term with the stabilization of Iraq under a democratic government as his top policy goal. But he also has unfinished domestic business, including making his sweeping tax cuts permanent, reforming Social Security, and promoting energy production.

Here is a summary of his plans:

IRAQ-TERRORISM

Bush intends to keep a U.S. presence in Iraq until the country is stable and run by a democratically elected government. He has offered no timeline for withdrawing U.S. forces but does plan to seek additional help from other countries in securing Iraq while it is rebuilt. He has ruled out instituting a draft to bolster the U.S. military should the Iraq situation worsen or drag on.

Bush is not likely to abandon his policy of pre-emptive action against potential threats to the United States. But with Iraq still a big uncertainty, it is not clear whether Bush will devote a greater share of his second-term attention to the worldwide dragnet for Usama bin Laden .

Comprehensive restructuring of U.S. military forces overseas, begun in Bush's first term, is likely to continue. But it is doubtful that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will stick around to see that effort through. If Secretary of State Colin Powell departs as expected, Bush will have to select a new top diplomat.

TAXES

Bush pledged to work in a second term to get Congress to make permanent the $1.9 trillion in tax cuts over a decade that he won in his first term. Most of the reductions, including elimination of the estate tax, are schedule to end after 2010. The 10-year cost of extending all of Bush tax cuts has been put at more than $1 trillion.

He also pledged to overhaul the tax code in a second term. His first step will be to appoint a commission to recommend the best way to revamp the tax system. He has not spelled out what alterations he would prefer, but some Republican conservatives are campaigning to scrap the current income tax and replace it with a national sales tax.

JOBS

There are about 821,000 fewer jobs in the country than when Bush took office in January 2001. Bush says he can spur economic growth and create jobs by making permanent his four rounds of tax cuts so people could keep and spend more of the money they earn. He says simplifying the tax code will encourage saving and investment, and he pledges to stop frivolous lawsuits that he claims divert money businesses could spend on new jobs. Bush plans to create "opportunity zones" to spur investment in needy communities through tax benefits. He promises to increase federal funding for research and development, and to restrain overall federal spending.

SOCIAL SECURITY

Bush wants to let younger workers divert some of their payroll taxes, which fund retirees' Social Security benefits, into personal investment accounts similar to a 401(k). He promises that benefits will not be cut for current retirees or people nearing retirement. He has not provided details on how such a system would work or be financed. Experts widely agree that allowing investment accounts could cost $2 trillion or more.

OIL-ENERGY

At a time of soaring oil prices, Bush is expected to continue promoting new energy production and press Congress for laws that encourage development of traditional fossil energy sources — oil, coal and natural gas.

He also is likely to renew his call for Congress to allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge . Environmentalists strongly oppose drilling there.

Look for a continued effort to make it easier to develop oil and gas on federal land. He will push Congress to require reliability standards for power lines and provide incentives for new power line construction. But he opposes enacting federal requirements for utilities to use renewable fuels, arguing that should be up to the states.

His hands-off policy on energy prices is expected to continue. And he is likely to continue pumping oil into the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve and reject calls to use the government oil except to counter a major supply disruption.

ENVIRONMENT

Bush's top environmental priority is to rewrite air pollution laws and regulations. His agenda could be overshadowed by an international climate treaty taking effect without U.S. participation.

He hopes finally to persuade Congress to pass his stalled "Clear Skies" plan for curtailing power plant pollution but not emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas linked to global warming.

Tough court fights loom on his easing of rules that require older industrial plants and refineries to add pollution controls if they expand. Under court order, the EPA is due to introduce by March the first national cap on mercury emissions.

Bush plans to cut spending on low-interest loans for local clean water projects and to seek more federal support for development of a hydrogen-fueled car.

He also wants to overturn a Clinton-era ban on 58 million acres of roadless areas and allow logging and road-building in them unless governors petition the federal government to preserve them. He would keep Yellowstone National Park open to snowmobiling, despite a challenge in federal court.

EDUCATION

Bush wants to expand No Child Left Behind , the most aggressive federal shake-up of education in a generation. The law — central to Bush's domestic agenda in his first term — orders schools to make yearly progress among all groups of students or risk penalties.

The president wants to require states to test students annually in reading and math in grades three through 11, two more years of testing in high school than now required.

This is part of Bush's plan to shift more attention to the upper grades and college to ensure students are better prepared for work. But he is sure to face continued criticism that, despite regular spending increases, he has not put enough federal money into schools.

The Bush administration has shown no interest in adjusting the education law before its renewal date in 2007, although his Education Department says it will adjust enforcement as needed.

A Bush presidency also ensures the government will keep promoting private-school vouchers, as it did in winning the first federal school vouchers, for the District of Columbia. Bush has a backlog of issues waiting for him, from Head Start to higher education.

HEALTH

Bush wants to expand tax breaks for lower-income Americans who buy their own insurance and for those who purchase high-deductible policies and have health savings accounts, which are tax-free investments that can be used for health expenses.

Bush also favors allowing small businesses in different states to band together to offer insurance to workers.

The president is stepping up efforts to enroll uninsured children in government-paid health care programs.

Republicans will renew their push to limit medical malpractice awards, which they argue drive up health care costs through fast-rising malpractice insurance rates and the practice of defensive medicine.

Bush also may seek again to alter the way the federal government pays its share of the Medicaid program for the poor. The president wants to give states broad new authority to cut or increase benefits and add or drop patients. States that choose to participate would get a pot of money to provide health care to some of their neediest residents and unprecedented discretion over how to spend it.

INTELLIGENCE-HOMELAND SECURITY

Bush has promised to improve security for ports, borders, transportation and critical infrastructure, particularly by staying on the offense against terrorists.

Odds are Homeland Security Department Secretary Tom Ridge won't stay in that post and may head to the private sector.

At the CIA, Republican Porter Goss, who left the House to become director in late September, is expected to stay. Goss wants to expand the agency's clandestine service, improve language capabilities and encourage risk-taking by intelligence analysts and operatives. But his Republican credentials have some Democrats concerned about his ability to keep the agency independent of political influence.

Down the road, Bush may have a key intelligence opening to fill. Congress wasn't able to agree on intelligence-reform legislation before the election, but lawmakers might eventually create a National Intelligence Director to oversee the government's intelligence agencies. Goss might seek a promotion, but many aren't ruling out that Bush could select someone else.

JUSTICE

Bush wants the Patriot Act renewed in its entirety and has fought any limits on it, arguing that it is vital in detecting and disrupting terrorists inside U.S. borders. Bush has promised to continue proposing large budget increases for the FBI and to improve information sharing among all federal law enforcement agencies to guard against terror attacks.

It's unclear whether Bush will ask Attorney General John Ashcroft to stay. If he doesn't, some Republicans are pushing for Bush to nominate Ashcroft's former deputy, Larry Thompson, as the nation's first black attorney general.

SUPREME COURT

During Bush's second administration, one or more of the court's five conservatives will likely retire, opening the first vacancies since 1994. The most likely is Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, who is 80 and was recently diagnosed with thyroid cancer. If Bush chose to elevate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, she would become the first woman chief justice. The 74-year-old O'Connor, however, may be a retirement prospect herself. Bush also might use any vacancy to give the court its first Hispanic member.

The other conservative justices — Antonin Scalia, Anthony M. Kennedy and Clarence Thomas — are less likely to leave. One question mark is Justice John Paul Stevens, at age 84 the oldest of the nine justices and leader of its liberal wing. A Stevens retirement would give Bush an opportunity to make the court more conservative on issues like capital punishment and abortion. Bush also must choose a new lawyer to represent the government before the court. Theodore Olson resigned as solicitor general over the summer to return to a lucrative private practice.

TRANSPORTATION

Bush is expected to stay the course on transportation policy. He will continue to oppose an increase in the federal gas tax to pay for more highway spending.

Bush will persist in his push to privatize parts of Amtrak and eliminate the passenger railroad's unprofitable long-distance lines.

The Federal Aviation Administration has said it will come up with a plan to replace air traffic controllers nearing retirement, though it is unclear where the funding will come from. Similarly, Bush's cuts to FAA spending on facilities and equipment may slow the pace of air traffic control modernization.

The only Democratic member of Bush's cabinet, Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta, is not expected to stay. Bush may replace him with FAA Administrator Marion Blakey, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham or Labor Secretary Elaine Chao.

HOUSING

Bush wants Congress to pass a tax credit for builders that erect homes affordable to middle-income families. He has also proposed the creation of new "opportunity zones" that would give struggling urban and rural communities priority in receiving economic assistance, education and job training programs and affordable housing.

Increasing homeownership, especially among minorities, is expected to remain a main housing target for Bush. The president in 2002 set a goal of 5.5 million new black and Hispanic homeowners by 2010, and Bush has pointed to rising minority homeownership rates as proof his plans work.

Revamping a voucher program that helps 2 million families — mainly poor — pay rent would remain a priority. HUD officials say they need to streamline costs but give local agencies more control and accountability over the $14.5 billion Section 8 program. Opponents contend the administration is trying to weaken vouchers.

Bush would continue his campaign against chronic homelessness, hoping that increasing funding for permanent housing and services for those who live primarily on the streets frees resources to assist those who are temporarily homeless.

FARM

Bush calls the current farm bill a success. He supports voluntary farm conservation efforts that include tax incentives and seeks to add another 800,000 to acres to the federal Conservation Reserve Program.

The president is seeking to renew Trade Promotion Authority and opposes efforts to label or otherwise restrict sales of genetically engineered food.

Bush seeks to relax the Endangered Species Act to make it more friendly to farmers and ranchers. He supports construction at locks and dams on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers to ship grain more swiftly to Gulf ports for export.

And he proposes to grant legal temporary worker status to millions of undocumented aliens, which would affect farm workers.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Bush intends to continue using diplomacy to try to halt North Korea's nuclear weapons programs and is ready to offer assurances he would not use force. Negotiations are being conducted jointly with South Korea, Japan, Russia and China.

In the Middle East, Bush has affirmed strong support for Israel and its security but avoided taking stands or providing details on how he intended to advance it or promote agreements between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Bush approved of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to relinquish all of Gaza and to evacuate a handful of Jewish settlements on the West Bank.

Bush has worked for good relations with China. Last December, with visiting Premier Wen Jiabao at his side at the White House, he sent a strong warning to Taiwan not to take any action toward independence and cause dangerous new tensions with Beijing.

In Europe, Bush expanded the NATO alliance and has sought to patch up differences with Germany and France over the war with Iraq. He plans to withdraw 70,000 troops from Europe and South Korea while reconfiguring U.S. military in Germany with trimmer and faster-moving units.

Post-Concession Reflections

On Point
Robert L. Borosage
Post-Concession Reflections
11/3/2004 | Source: TomPaine.com

John Kerry has conceded. George W. Bush will have a second term. By consolidating their hold on the South, Republicans have added to their majorities in the House and Senate. What is clear is a fundamental failure of leadership. In the midst of a war—with 9/11 still searing our consciousness—Bush's policies and politics have deepened the divisions in this country.

Bush won votes by wrapping himself in the flag and by summoning the passions of his evangelical base. Conservative evangelicals supplied his volunteers, turned out in large numbers and voted overwhelmingly for Bush.

Bush's Narrow Base

The president split the popular vote with Kerry, but the narrowness of his base is striking. The majority of Bush's support—88 percent—came from whites. He lost African Americans nine to one. Asians nearly two to one. Efforts to woo Hispanics earned all of 40 percent of their votes. Only in the South did Bush win a majority—losing the popular vote in the East, the Midwest and the West.

Class mattered—even though Kerry was unable to sustain an economic message amid the barrages of the campaign. According to exit polls, Bush lost majorities of all those making $50,000 and less—and won majorities of those making more than that. His biggest margin came from those making more than $100,000. His base remains the "haves and the have mores," as he famously put it.

The president won overwhelming majorities among those who considered the war on terrorism or morals the most important single issue. But, tellingly, he lost three-quarters of voters who considered Iraq the most important issue and three-quarters who thought the economy and jobs the most important. Kerry's candidacy was propelled by anti-war sentiment and economic discontent. Kerry also won vast majorities of those who thought health care or education was the most important issue.

Some argue that the strength of the president's evangelical base suggests America is headed toward a new era of prohibition and moral reaction. But John Kerry was the most secular of candidates. He championed science against the forces of moral reaction. He stood clearly for liberal social issues from civil unions to women's right to choose. He was a liberal senator from Massachusetts, as the president delighted in repeating. Kerry's campaign may mark the beginning of a reaction not by the right—but by the center and left against the forces of intolerance.

Amid record turnout, the mobilization driven by progressive groups from Americans Coming Together to MoveOn.org to the AFL-CIO clearly transformed the race. First-time voters went for Kerry. Young voters went for Kerry. African-American turnout was up dramatically. Union households sustained one-quarter of the electorate and voted in large majorities for Kerry. That mobilization won Pennsylvania and Michigan, drove the divide in Ohio and overcame the systematic Republican efforts at voter intimidation and suppression.

What's Next

Bush's victory will produce a second-term president with a mandate for little beyond patriotic and pious posturing. A majority of Americans have shown that they oppose his war and have no interest in his domestic agenda. When the offensive starts in Iraq and the casualties rise, his popularity will plummet. Were he to try to privatize Social Security, move to a flat tax or weaken Medicare, his party will suffer. When the dollar falls or the economy slows, burdened by debt and oil prices, a broad majority will express their buyers' remorse.

The independent energy and organization that drove the Kerry campaign must continue to build. Its potential was demonstrated in this election. The sophistication exhibited by groups like Moveon.org, ACORN, U.S. Action, the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters, Working America and many others provides the base for taking back the country—whether the White House is an ally or an enemy.

President George W. Bush

World Leaders, Diplomats React To Election

World Leaders, Diplomats React To Election
11.03.2004 3:48 PM EST

Long before the election results were final, leaders, diplomats and media organizations around the world began preparing for the next four years of United States leadership.

"Good Morning, Mr. President," read the headline of the German newspaper Bild on Wednesday morning. With votes too close to call in Ohio, the paper refrained from making any guess about who, exactly, "Mr. President" would be.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair joked with lawmakers in the House of Commons on Tuesday that he was sure everyone in the House joined him "in sending congratulations to the President ... Karzai of Afghanistan," according to the BBC.

After four years of increasingly uneasy relations between the United States and much of the world, the prospect of a Bush re-election brought forth a wide range of reactions from leaders and diplomats from all over the world (see "John Kerry Delivers Concession Speech, Calls For Unity"). Here's what some of them had to say:

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the prospect of President Bush's re-election as a "victory over fear." "If Bush wins, then I will be able to rejoice that the American people did not allow themselves to be scared and made a right decision," Putin told the BBC.

"The Americans have voted for a militarized Rambo rather than someone who appeals to their reason," Bolaji Akinyemi, a former Nigerian foreign minister, said to CNN. "I suppose every living being, when frightened by security, stops thinking and reacts instinctively."

"I simply hope that the American president, whatever his name might be, will take this opportunity to reach out to Europeans and say in both style and substance how we can work together," Karsten Voigt, the German Foreign Ministry's co-ordinator for U.S.-German co-operation, said to CBS.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier stressed to CBS the importance of efforts to "rebuild, to renovate trans-Atlantic relations" as well as to address current crises in Iraq, the Middle East, Iran and the African continent.

"I hope that [Bush] will try to build bridges ... and do more to cooperate via international organizations," Norwegian Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik said to ABC.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told the BBC, "Regardless of which candidate wins, I think there will basically be no change in the recognition of friendship between Japan and the United States."

"It is an incumbent president in a situation where a great part of the nation experiences that it is in a war with terrorism and the economy is moving in the right direction," Sweden's Prime Minister, Goeran Persson, told CBS. "These two issues together should have given Bush a clear victory. Despite this, it was very narrow."

"This is a catastrophe for the rest of the world. We have already seen that Bush has made a mess of the world over the last four years," Syafii Maarif, chairman of Muhammadiyah, a mainstream Indonesian Muslim organization, said to the BBC.

Kenyan Vice President Moody Awori told the BBC he was worried that America would become more dictatorial and extremist if Bush were re-elected. "We are going to see even more isolationism where America will not bother about the United Nations," he said. "To me, that is a very sad affair."

— E. Warren Scott and Nastassia Lopez

No 'Moore' at A-List Election Party

No 'Moore' at A-List Election Party
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
By Roger Friedman

Harvey Weinstein and Georgette Mosbacher's non-partisan election-watching party came off without a hitch last night.

Well, maybe one hitch. When the Kerry supporters, the preponderance of guests there, got the gloomy feeling that they were going to be on the losing end of the night, the party — held at The Palm in Manhattan — drained like a bathtub that had suddenly lost its stopper.

But for two or three hours, the slimmed-down Weinstein and the ever-buxom Mosbacher welcomed a cross-section of New York media types, including the redoubtable Charlie Rose, rap-music impresario Russell Simmons, Oxygen Network's Geraldine Laybourne, "Rocky Horror Picture Show" star Tim Curry, New York Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman, actress/playwright Anna Deveare Smith, activist Bianca Jagger, Sony CEO Sir Howard Stringer, James Lipton, HarperCollins editor in chief Dave Hirshey, record-biz lawyer Alan Grubman and his realtor wife Deborah Grubman.

Also present were all the gossip columnists Mosbacher and Weinstein could lay their hands on: Richard Johnson, George Rush, the New York Times' Joyce Wadler, Lloyd Grove and former New York Observer hand Frank DiGiacomo.

Kate Castelbajac, looking like a movie star herself, dropped by while boyfriend Ron Silver made the rounds doing television interviews.

Barbara Walters held court in a dark corner all night. Would-be Secretary of the Treasury Steven Schwartzman and his wife Christine accepted congratulations from friends, as did writer Lally Weymouth, daughter of the Washington Post's late publisher Katherine Graham.

Even without the star power of the 2000 election party — which featured Gwyneth Paltrow and Ben Affleck — Harvey and Georgette's excellent adventure sizzled for a few moments when Tina Brown and Harry Evans walked in.

Several people complimented Weinstein on "Finding Neverland," one of the mogul's two entries in the race for best picture Oscar this year.

And no, there was nary a sign of Michael Moore, even though Harvey went through so much Sturm und Drang to produce "Fahrenheit 9/11."

When I called Moore's office in the late afternoon, I got the same runaround from the usual 12-year-old who's answered the phone since last summer.

Question: "Is Michael in N.Y.? Is he going to the Miramax party tonight?"

Answer: "I don't know. I don't know."

Question (posed because the receptionist initially answered by saying just "Hello"): "Is this even Michael Moore's office?"

Answer: "It depends on who you are."

By then I couldn't remember, so I conceded the call. It's the last time I will attempt contact with Moore's office.

The irony, of course, is that he complains in his films about people not knowing the answers to questions posed to them.

Meanwhile, the parties swirled: A glum group of New York politicians, Kerry donors and former staffers drowned their sorrows at JLX Cafe, the former Jean Luc, which has been reconceived into a smart bistro. The New York Democratic Committee set up shop at the Grand Hyatt Hotel, while Comedy Central filled up The Park restaurant with fans of "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart."

Michael Moore